Opioid Use, Health and Crime: Insights from a Rapid Reduction in Heroin Supply
Published in Review of Economics and Statistics (forthcoming), 2024
Recommended citation: Moore, Timothy J. and Kevin T. Schnepel (2024). "Opioid Use, Health and Crime: Insights from a Rapid Reduction in Heroin Supply." (previously circulated as NBER Working Paper No. 28848).
Abstract: In 2001, a large and sustained supply shock halted a heroin epidemic in Australia. We use drug offenses to identify individual opioid users and examine how the shock affected their mortality risks and criminal activity over the next eight years. Initially, gains from fewer overdoses are offset by drug substitution and more crime, including homicides. Most adverse effects dissipate over time, while persistent mortality reductions save the lives of around one in 48 individuals in our sample. Our results demonstrate that reducing the supply of illicit opioids can lead to meaningful longer-term improvements, even when the short-term effects are ambiguous.