Kevin Schnepel
Associate Professor of Economics
Simon Fraser University
I am an associate professor in the Department of Economics at Simon Fraser University, where I currently serve as graduate program chair. I specialize in the economic analysis of crime, criminal justice, and public safety. My research uses large administrative datasets and causal inference methods to measure what policies actually do: for example, how giving first-time felony defendants a chance to avoid a conviction affects reoffending and employment, whether better job opportunities keep people from returning to prison, and how bans on public assistance for people with drug convictions affect their families.
I serve on the Criminal Justice Scientific Advisory Panel at Arnold Ventures, which funds causal research on community safety and the criminal justice system. I am also part of a team with Bohdan Nosyk’s Health Economic Research Unit at the Centre for Advancing Health Outcomes, evaluating policies to reduce opioid-related harms during British Columbia’s toxic drug crisis.
Research
Current Projects and Working Papers
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The Direct and Intergenerational Effects of Criminal History-Based Safety Net Bans in the U.S.
We study the lifetime banning, as introduced by United States Public Law 104-193, of individuals convicted of felony drug offenses after August 22, 1996 from ever receiving future SNAP benefits. Using a regression discontinuity design that leverages CJARS criminal history records with federal administrative and survey data, we estimate the causal impact of safety net assistance bans, finding significant reductions in SNAP benefit take-up, which creates unintentional spillovers to spouses and children and persist long after ban revocations occurred. While we observe limited changes to other adult outcomes, children’s short- and long-run outcomes worsen, especially those impacted at young ages.
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Welfare Payment Timing and Property Crime
Financial desperation among impoverished individuals is a well-documented driver of property-related offenses. Social safety net programs, such as SNAP and TANF in the United States and provincial income-assistance benefits in Canada, aim to support individuals and families experiencing economic hardship. The timing of these transfers, not just their size, is an important feature of assistance programs, with real implications for their effectiveness. We study the role that the timing of welfare payments plays in reducing or exacerbating property crime using British Columbia’s social assistance programs, where payment disbursement day shifts from month to month, typically occurring on the third or fourth Wednesday of the month (known as “Welfare Wednesday”). This variation allows us to trace both the relationship between property crime and the time elapsed since welfare payment and the effect of misalignment between payday and major recurring expenses due at the start of the month. Using daily Vancouver Police Department data from 2003 through June 2026, we find that reported property crime decreases by 19.6 percent immediately after a welfare payment is disbursed and rises steadily thereafter, and that each additional week of misalignment between payday and the first of the month increases property-related crime by 3.5 percent. Our results imply that a nontrivial share of property crime could be prevented by shifting welfare payments to the last business day of the month, as many social safety net programs already do, suggesting that the causal effect of transfer timing on crime deserves attention from policymakers.
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The Human Capital Benefits of Neonatal Care for Moderate-Risk Infants
We document significant human capital gains from a common intervention for moderate-risk newborns — Special Care Nurseries (SCN). Using instrumental variables that exploit strict clinical decision rules for SCN admission, and linked population data from Australia’s Northern Territory, we find that SCN admission increases the probability of avoiding developmental vulnerability on five teacher-assessed domains at the start of full-time schooling by 19 percentage points — a 30% improvement over baseline — and raises scores of physical health and wellbeing by over one-third of a standard deviation. Mechanisms involve improved health trajectories: SCN reduces hospital admissions for infectious and respiratory illness and accidents, while enabling treatment of conditions requiring surgery. These gains are concentrated among boys, consistent with greater male vulnerability to in-utero health shocks. Given that SCN care typically adds only one week of hospital care, these findings suggest it may offer substantial long-term human capital returns at relatively low marginal cost.
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Better Stealing Than Dealing: How Do Felony Theft Thresholds Impact Crime?
From 2005 to 2019, forty US states raised the dollar value threshold delineating misdemeanor and felony theft, thereby reducing the expected punishment for a subset of property crimes. Using an event-study framework that exploits the staggered adoption of these reforms, we observe significant and growing increases in theft after a state reform is passed. We then show that reduced sanctions for theft have broader effects in the market for illegal activity. Consistent with a mechanism of substitution across income-generating crimes, we find decreases in both drug distribution crimes and the probability that a released offender previously convicted of drug distribution is reincarcerated for a new drug conviction.
- New Contexts for Little Scandinavia: The Effect of Importing Scandinavian Correctional Principles into Pennsylvania Prisons with Sarah Tahamont, Benjamin Feigenberg, and Britte Van Tiem
- Legacy of Lead: The Impact of Pb Exposure and Remediation Efforts in Colorado with Steve Billings, Ludovica Gazze, and Derek Wietelman
- The Long-term Benefits of Removing Lead Exposure: Evidence from the Omaha Superfund Site Cleanup with Steve Billings, Mike Mueller-Smith, and Danny Tannenbaum
Publications
If you can't access a paper through the journal, email me for a copy.
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A Review of Policy Actions Implemented During a Toxic Drug Public Health Emergency in British Columbia, Canada (2016–2024)
Background. During a decade-long public health emergency, driven by a highly unpredictable unregulated drug supply, drug toxicity remains the leading cause of unnatural death in British Columbia (BC), Canada. In response, the province implemented a multi-faceted approach to prevent toxic drug harms and save lives. Our objective was to review all relevant provincial policy actions since the declaration of the emergency and identify evaluations of implementation and effectiveness.
Methods. We identified provincial-level policy actions related to unregulated substance use between 04/2016–12/2024 through a list provided by the BC Ministry of Health and searches of peer-reviewed and grey literature. We classified actions into nine provincial response domains, summarized over time, and noted if the policy change was evaluated.
Findings. We identified 146 policy actions concentrated primarily in three domains: treatment and recovery (n = 51 (35%)), overdose prevention services (n = 26 (18%)), and social stabilization (n = 21 (14%)). Actions slowed at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, resuming in 2021–24. Most actions (n = 85, 58%) have not yet undergone evaluations of implementation or effectiveness.
Conclusion. Despite a broad and innovative provincial response, the toxic drug crisis remains a significant challenge across BC. More evaluation is urgently needed to identify the effects of policy actions to date.
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Opioid Use, Mortality Risks, and Crime: Insights from a Rapid Reduction in Heroin Supply
In 2001, a large and sustained supply shock halted a heroin epidemic in Australia. We use drug offenses to identify individual opioid users and examine how the shock affected their mortality risks and criminal activity over the next eight years. Initially, gains from fewer overdoses are offset by drug substitution and more crime, including homicides. Most adverse effects dissipate over time, whereas persistent mortality reductions save the lives of around one in 48 individuals in our sample. Our results demonstrate that reducing the supply of illicit opioids can lead to meaningful longer-term improvements, even when the short-term effects are ambiguous.
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Does Nothing Stop a Bullet Like a Job? The Effects of Income on Crime
Do jobs and income-transfer programs affect crime? The answer depends on why one is asking the question, which shapes what one means by “crime.” Many studies focus on understanding why overall crime rates vary across people, places, and time; because 80% of all crimes are property offenses, that is what this type of research typically explains. But if the goal is to understand what to do about the crime problem, the focus should instead be on serious violent crimes, which the best available estimates suggest seem to account for the majority of the social costs of crime. The best available evidence suggests that policies that reduce economic desperation reduce property crime (and, hence, overall crime rates) but have little systematic relationship to violent crime. The difference in impacts arguably stems in large part from the fact that most violent crimes, including murder, are not crimes of profit but rather crimes of passion, including rage. Policies to alleviate material hardship, as important and useful as those are for improving people’s lives and well-being, are not by themselves sufficient to also substantially alleviate the burden of violent crime on society.
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Buprenorphine/Naloxone vs Methadone for the Treatment of Opioid Use Disorder
In the media: SFU News, American Journal of Managed Care
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What Is the Ideal Time to Begin Tapering Opioid Agonist Treatment? A Protocol for a Retrospective Population-Based Comparative Effectiveness Study in British Columbia, Canada
Introduction. Opioid agonist treatment (OAT) tapering involves a gradual reduction in daily medication dose to ultimately reach a state of opioid abstinence. Due to the high risk of relapse and overdose after tapering, this practice is not recommended by clinical guidelines, however, clients may still request to taper off medication. The ideal time to initiate an OAT taper is not known. However, ethically, taper plans should acknowledge clients’ preferences and autonomy but apply principles of shared informed decision-making regarding safety and efficacy. Linked population-level data capturing real-world tapering practices provide a valuable opportunity to improve existing evidence on when to contemplate starting an OAT taper. Our objective is to determine the comparative effectiveness of alternative times from OAT initiation at which a taper can be initiated, with a primary outcome of taper completion, as observed in clinical practice in British Columbia (BC), Canada.
Methods and analysis. We propose a population-level retrospective observational study with a linkage of eight provincial health administrative databases in BC, Canada (01 January 2010 to 17 March 2020). Our primary outcomes include taper completion and all-cause mortality during treatment. We propose a ‘per-protocol’ target trial to compare different durations to taper initiation on the likelihood of taper completion. A range of sensitivity analyses will be used to assess the heterogeneity and robustness of the results including assessment of effectiveness and safety.
Ethics and dissemination. The protocol, cohort creation and analysis plan have been classified and approved as a quality improvement initiative by Providence Health Care Research Ethics Board and the Simon Fraser University Office of Research Ethics. Results will be disseminated to local advocacy groups and decision-makers, national and international clinical guideline developers, presented at international conferences and published in peer-reviewed journals electronically and in print.
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Comparative Analysis of Instrumental Variables on the Assignment of Buprenorphine/Naloxone or Methadone for the Treatment of Opioid Use Disorder
Background. Instrumental variable (IV) analysis provides an alternative set of identification assumptions in the presence of uncontrolled confounding when attempting to estimate causal effects. Our objective was to evaluate the suitability of measures of prescriber preference and calendar time as potential IVs to evaluate the comparative effectiveness of buprenorphine/naloxone versus methadone for treatment of opioid use disorder (OUD).
Methods. Using linked population-level health administrative data, we constructed five IVs: prescribing preference at the individual, facility, and region levels (continuous and categorical variables), calendar time, and a binary prescriber’s preference IV in analyzing the treatment assignment–treatment discontinuation association using both incident-user and prevalent-new-user designs. Using published guidelines, we assessed and compared each IV according to the four assumptions for IVs, employing both empirical assessment and content expertise. We evaluated the robustness of results using sensitivity analyses.
Results. The study sample included 35,904 incident users (43.3% on buprenorphine/naloxone) initiated on opioid agonist treatment by 1585 prescribers during the study period. While all candidate IVs were strong (A1) according to conventional criteria, by expert opinion, we found no evidence against assumptions of exclusion (A2), independence (A3), monotonicity (A4a), and homogeneity (A4b) for prescribing preference-based IV. Some criteria were violated for the calendar time-based IV. We determined that preference in provider-level prescribing, measured on a continuous scale, was the most suitable IV for comparative effectiveness of buprenorphine/naloxone and methadone for the treatment of OUD.
Conclusions. Our results suggest that prescriber’s preference measures are suitable IVs in comparative effectiveness studies of treatment for OUD.
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Hanging Out with the Usual Suspects: Peer Effects and Recidivism
Social interactions within neighborhoods, schools and detention facilities are important determinants of criminal behavior. However, little is known about the degree to which neighborhood peers affect successful community re-entry following incarceration. This paper measures the influence of social networks on recidivism by exploiting the fact that neighborhood peers may be locked up when a prisoner returns home. Using detailed arrest and incarceration data that includes residential addresses for offenders, we find consistent and robust evidence that a former inmate is less likely to reoffend if more of his peers are held captive while he reintegrates into society.
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The Effect of a Methadone Reformulation on Opioid Agonist Treatment Outcomes: A Population-Based Study in British Columbia, Canada, 2013–14
Introduction. The province of British Columbia, Canada, changed the existing oral anhydrous methadone solution to a 10-times more concentrated pre-mixed solution, Methadose®, on February 1, 2014. We aimed to assess the immediate effects of the methadone reformulation on missed doses, days off methadone, changes in medication dosing and dispensations of opioids for pain, and hospitalizations and mortality among all people receiving treatment at or near the time of the change.
Methods. We conducted a population-based retrospective cohort study including all individuals receiving at least one methadone dispensation in the 12 months prior to the study period. We executed a difference-in-differences analysis by estimating a multivariate regression model to compare outcomes in the three months before and after the reformulation (November 1, 2013 to April 30, 2014) versus a time-lagged control cohort with similar characteristics observed during an equivalent nonoverlapping interval. We used daily individual-level linked health administrative data capturing missed doses, days off methadone, changes in methadone dosing, concurrent dispensations of opioids for pain, hospitalizations, and mortality. We stratified the cohorts into three subgroups: (i) those receiving OAT for ≥12 months; (ii) those receiving OAT for <12 months; and (iii) those not receiving OAT at the start of the study period. We conducted sensitivity analyses and placebo tests to assess the robustness of our results.
Results. Among the 16,339 individuals receiving methadone during the study period, the reformulation was associated with more instances of methadone dose increases (34.5% [95% Confidence Interval (CI): 27.4%, 41.5%]). For those retained in treatment ≥12 months prior to the study period (n = 7449), the reformulation was associated with more instances of methadone dose increases (50.2% [39.5%, 60.8%]) and dispensations of opioids for pain (62.2% [40.8%, 83.5%]), as well as an increase in missed doses (41.9% [29.1%, 54.7%]) and days off methadone (62.6% [39.7%, 85.4%]). We found no statistically significant change in risk of hospitalization or mortality. Sensitivity analyses supported our results.
Conclusion. Our results reinforce the need expressed by people receiving methadone for greater client involvement in the planning and implementation of regulatory changes that may impact client care, especially those patients with a relatively long treatment history.
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Diversion in the Criminal Justice System
This paper provides the first causal estimates on the popular, cost-saving practice of diversion in the criminal justice system, an intervention that provides offenders with a second chance to avoid a criminal record. We exploit two natural experiments in Harris County, Texas where first-time felony defendants faced abrupt changes in the probability of diversion. Using administrative data and regression discontinuity methods, we find robust evidence across both experiments that diversion cuts reoffending rates in half (−32 p.p.) and grows quarterly employment rates by 53 percent (+18 p.p.) over 10 years. The change in trajectory persists even 20 years out and is concentrated among young black men. An investigation of mechanisms indicates that stigma associated with a felony conviction plays a key role in generating these results. Other possible mechanisms including changes in incarceration, universal adjustments in policy or practice, and differences in criminal processing are ruled out empirically.
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Life after Lead: Effects of Early Interventions for Children Exposed to Lead
Lead pollution is consistently linked to cognitive and behavioral impairments, yet little is known about the benefits of public health interventions for children exposed to lead. This paper estimates the long-term impacts of early-life interventions (e.g. lead remediation, nutritional assessment, medical evaluation, developmental surveillance, and public assistance referrals) recommended for lead-poisoned children. Using linked administrative data from Charlotte, NC, we compare outcomes for children who are similar across observable characteristics but differ in eligibility for intervention due to blood lead test results. We find that the negative outcomes previously associated with early-life exposure can largely be reversed by intervention.
In the media: Chalkbeat, AEA Research Highlights, Quartz, Bloomberg, Mother Jones, Chicago Policy Review -
Good Jobs and Recidivism
I estimate the impact of employment opportunities on recidivism among 1.7 million offenders released from a California prison between 1993 and 2008. The institutional structure of the California criminal justice system as well as location, skill, and industry‐specific job accession data provide a unique framework for identifying a causal effect of job availability on criminal behaviour. I find that increases in construction and manufacturing opportunities at the time of release are associated with significant reductions in recidivism. Other types of opportunities, including those characterised by lower wages that are typically accessible to individuals with criminal records, do not influence recidivism.
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Asymptotic Behavior of a t-Test Robust to Cluster Heterogeneity
For a cluster-robust t-statistic under cluster heterogeneity we establish that the cluster-robust t-statistic has a gaussian asymptotic null distribution and develop the effective number of clusters, which scales down the actual number of clusters, as a guide to the behavior of the test statistic. The implications for hypothesis testing in applied work are that the number of clusters, rather than the number of observations, should be reported as the sample size, and the effective number of clusters should be reported to guide inference. If the effective number of clusters is large, testing based on critical values from a normal distribution is appropriate.
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The Value of a Healthy Home: Lead Paint Remediation and Housing Values
The presence of lead paint significantly impairs cognitive and behavioral development, yet little is known about the value to households of avoiding this residence-specific environmental health risk. In this paper, we estimate the benefits of lead-paint remediation on housing prices. Using data on all homes that applied to a HUD-funded program in Charlotte, North Carolina, we adopt a difference-in-differences estimator that compares values among remediated properties with those for which an inspection does not identify a lead paint hazard. Results indicate large returns for public and private investment in remediation with each 1 dollar spent on lead remediation generating 2.60 in benefits as well as a reduction in residential turnover.
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Economic Adversity and Crime: Old Theories and New Evidence
In this article we make a case for the continuing relevance of economic adversity and social policy in the understanding and prevention of crime. We begin by discussing early theories positing a causal relationship between economic adversity and crime and examine the factors that have led to a loss of confidence in these theories. We then summarise two prominent strands of research investigating important indirect criminogenic effects of economic adversity. The first deals with the long‐term impact of economic adversity on parenting. The second analyses the impact of economic adversity on crime through its effect on informal social controls within a community. Finally, we review recent empirical studies that use modern econometric techniques to explore the direct effects of economic adversity on crime, highlighting research focused on factors such as wages, employment, housing, and income support programs. The paper concludes by suggesting a number of areas for future research.
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College Football Games and Crime
There is a great deal of anecdotal evidence that college football games can lead to aggressive and destructive behavior by fans. However, to date, no empirical study has attempted to document the magnitude of this phenomenon. We match daily data on offenses from the National Incident-Based Reporting System to 26 Division I-A college football programs to estimate the relationship between college football games and crime. Our results suggest that the host community registers sharp increases in assaults, vandalism, arrests for disorderly conduct, and arrests for alcohol-related offenses on game days. Upsets are associated with the largest increases in the number of expected offenses.
In the media: Colorado Public Radio, Freakonomics, Inside Higher Ed, Security Management, The Atlantic
Other Writing
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Do Post-Prison Job Opportunities Reduce Recidivism?
The majority of individuals released from prison face limited employment opportunities and do not successfully reintegrate into society. The inability to find stable work is often cited as a key determinant of failed re-entry (or “recidivism”). However, empirical evidence that demonstrates a causal impact of job opportunities on recidivism is sparse. In fact, several randomized evaluations of employment-focused programs find increases in employment but little impact on recidivism. Recent evidence points to wages and job quality as important determinants of recidivism among former prisoners.
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Economics of Incarceration
Incarceration rates have more than doubled in Australia over the past several decades, with a dramatic increase since 2010. There are many mechanisms by which these changes in imprisonment exert a causal influence on individual behaviour. The threat of incarceration can deter an individual from committing a crime. The experience of incarceration incapacitates a criminal but can also expose a prisoner to more criminal peers and reduce future legal employment opportunities. This article provides students an introduction to a rapidly expanding economics literature that empirically tests the mechanisms of incarceration and estimates its costs and benefits.
Policy & Media
Testimony and Policy Presentations
- Sep 2026 Breaking the Cycle: Applying Causal Research Findings to Reduce Recidivism (panel with Sheriff David Rhodes, Yavapai County, AZ, and Nina Salomon, Council of State Governments) Arnold Ventures Public Safety Boot Camp, Philadelphia, PA
- Jan 2026 Expert testimony on House Bill 2217 Washington State House Committee on Community Safety
- Oct 2025 State of the research: Lead exposure and lead service lines Arnold Ventures BRIDGE Day, Washington, DC
- Sep 2025 Addressing Youth Violence: Proven Interventions and Policy Considerations (panel with former Kentucky State Representative Whitney Westerfield) Arnold Ventures Public Safety Boot Camp, New Orleans, LA
- Sep 2025 Retail Theft and Felony Theft Thresholds (panel with Khris Hamlin, Retail Industry Leaders Association) Arnold Ventures Public Safety Boot Camp, New Orleans, LA
- May 2025 State of the research: Community service as non-fine punishment Arnold Ventures BRIDGE Day, Washington, DC
- Jun 2024 A snapshot of recent research on the causal impact of Medicaid/health care on crime and recidivism Arnold Ventures BRIDGE Day, New York City
- Aug 2021 Life after Lead: Effects of Early Interventions for Children Exposed to Lead (video) Niskanen Center, Reducing Violence Across the United States panel series
- Jul 2021 Diversion in the Criminal Justice System (video) Niskanen Center, Reducing Violence Across the United States panel series
Reports for the U.S. National Commission on COVID-19 and Criminal Justice
- Apr 2021 COVID-19 Testing in State Prisons
- Dec 2020 COVID-19 and Prisons – December 2020 Update
- Sep 2020 COVID-19 in U.S. State and Federal Prisons
Covered by The Guardian, ABC News, CNN, San Francisco Chronicle, Detroit News, Denver Post, The Crime Report, and other outlets.
Articles and Op-eds
- May 2024 Does nothing stop a bullet like a job? (with Jens Ludwig) Vital City
- Mar 2021 Second chance: the social benefits of diversion in the criminal justice system Microeconomic Insights
- Nov 2017 When it comes to reducing the reoffending rate of released prisoners it is the quality of available jobs that matters IZA World of Labor
CV
Appointments
- 2022– Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University
- 2018–2022 Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University
- 2013–2018 Assistant Professor, School of Economics, The University of Sydney
Current Affiliations
- 2026– Criminal Justice Scientific Advisory Panel, Arnold Ventures
- 2026– Expert Advisory Board, Evaluation of Ontario’s Justice Centres and Therapeutic Courts, Blueprint (for the Ontario Ministry of the Attorney General)
- 2025– Co-Editor, Economic Inquiry
- 2024– Associate Member, School of Public Policy, Simon Fraser University
- 2021– Research Fellow, IZA@LISER Network
- 2021– Member, Criminal Justice Expert Panel
- 2018– Honorary Associate, School of Economics, The University of Sydney
- 2018– Member, Center for Health Economics & Policy Studies (CHEPS) Advisory Board, San Diego State University
Education
- 2013 Ph.D. in Economics, University of California, Santa Barbara
- 2008 M.A. in Economics, University of Colorado Denver
- 2002 B.A. in Accounting and Finance, Loyola University New Orleans